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Rulings Not Rules - Sneaking past a guard

My post a couple of days ago about B/X resolution systems got me thinking about how to adjudicate certain situations.

Here is a situation that I remember from an old thread at Original D&D Discussion which I can no longer find. Assuming the use of B/X D&D how would you adjudicate the following situation:

A player character (not a thief) is trying to sneak across the entrance to a hallway in a dungeon. At the end of a hallway is a guard standing in front of a doorway. There is one torch in the hallway where the guard is. The guard is standing about 40 ft from where the player character is trying to sneak across.

How would you handle the situation? Does the PC have a chance to sneak past undetected? What rules would you use or what rulings would you make?

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EDIT: Here is what I would do (of course, just one of many ways to handle the situation):

Case 1: The PC is wearing metal armour, carrying usual adventuring gear, etc.
I would give the guard a Listen check with a +1 or +2 bonus (so a 3 or 4 in 6 chance of hearing the PC approaching).
If he heard the guard failed his Listen check then I would roll Surprise with a +1 bonus (so a 1 in 6 chance of being surprised).
If the guard was surprised I wold then rule that he was asleep or something.
This gives the PC about a 5% to 8% chance of succeeding in sneaking past.

Case 2: The PC has stripped off armour, padded anything that could make noise and is generally being really stealthy.
I would roll Surprise for the guard. If he was surprised I would rule that he had is back turned or wasn't paying attention for a moment, etc.
This gives the PC a 33% chance of succeeding.

Case 3: A thief (even though I mentioned the PC wasn't a thief).
Make a Move Silently check. If he succeeded then I would give him a bonus to the same surprise roll I used in Case 2. Note that I am using the RAW that to Hide in Shadows the thief has to remain still so that skill isn't relevant.
This give the thief PC the best chance.

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